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Research Projects · two methods

Ask the method to earn the finding.

These public-data studies answer different questions and therefore carry different standards of proof. The comparison keeps source, evaluation, decision use and uncertainty beside each result.

Compare the two methods

Two questions · two evidence routes

Description is not prediction.

01 · observeReported recordsInspection shortlistBounded by coverage, exposure and causality
02 · forecastTime-ordered historyPlanner reviewBounded by baseline error, intervals and missing operations data
Studies
2
Verified sources
4
Files available to inspect
12

Evidence register

Compare the research question before comparing the result.

Every cell below is tied to a Project, an attributed source and a retained analytical result.

Evidence dimensionDescriptive studyPredictive study
Research questionWhich one-kilometre areas should a highways engineer inspect first, and what should be checked at the location?Which selected stations need a closer operational check before a planner changes a rebalancing or staffing plan?
Public sourceDepartment for Transport final collision, vehicle and casualty recordsTen official TfL Santander Cycles journey extracts
Retained period1 Jan 2020–31 Dec 20241 Jan 2026–31 May 2026
MethodTyped collision, vehicle and casualty facts; adjusted-severity trends; transparent one-kilometre ordering; one retained collision trace.Complete station-hours; leakage-safe one, three and six-hour features; three expanding rolling origins; weekly, Poisson and boosted-quantile comparisons.
Evaluation14 checks pass, 1 coordinate-coverage warning retained and 0 blocking failures.26,784 held-out May forecasts; 20.8% aggregate MAE improvement over the weekly baseline; 88.8% retained interval coverage.
Decision useNarrow an engineering site inspection and frame the junction, crossing and night-time sightline questions.Flag a station for live availability, nearby-dock and operating-constraint review before a service plan changes.
Uncertainty and limitPolice-reported injury collisions are incomplete and the ordering is not exposure-adjusted, causal or a road-safety risk score.Completed hires omit unmet demand, historic bike stock and rebalancing actions; the result is historical evaluation, not deployed or autonomous operation.

01Descriptive study

Road Collision Trends and Engineering Review

Which one-kilometre areas should a highways engineer inspect first, and what should be checked at the location?

Inspect the complete Project
Collisions processed
503,475
Casualties processed
640,522
Review cells
65,242
Five-year adjusted severe-casualty trend, one-kilometre review shortlist and retained collision trace
Executed analytical evidenceContains Department for Transport data licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.Open Road Collision Trends and Engineering Review evidence

One retained trace

From collision record to site question.

  1. 01
    Reported record

    2024010566856

  2. 02
    Observed detail

    4 casualties · 1 vehicle · 20 mph

  3. 03
    Inspection cell

    E529000_N180000

  4. 04
    Human boundary

    Retain the cell for inspection and ask a highways engineer to review the multi-arm junction, crossing paths and night-time sightlines.

Quanta Meridian built the SQL model and analysis from public Department for Transport records. The data does not represent client work.

02Predictive study

Cycle Hire Demand and Service Planning

Test station-demand forecasts before they enter service planning.

Which selected stations need a closer operational check before a planner changes a rebalancing or staffing plan?

Inspect the complete Project
Journeys inspected
3,563,266
Station-hours
41,460
Held-out forecasts
26,784
Twelve cycle-hire stations with forecast ranges and held-out error at one, three and six hours
Executed analytical evidenceTransport for London Open Data, Transport Data Service Licence.Open Cycle Hire Demand and Service Planning evidence

One retained trace

From station-hour to planner check.

  1. 01
    station-hour observation

    Waterloo Station 3, Waterloo · 152 departures · Counted from unique TfL journey numbers

  2. 02
    forecast issue

    Waterloo Station 3, Waterloo · 2026-05-13 06:00:00+00:00 · Only earlier observations available

  3. 03
    168-hour seasonal lag

    Waterloo Station 3, Waterloo · 108 · Same station and hour one week earlier

  4. 04
    selected forecast

    Waterloo Station 3, Waterloo · 161.3 · 80% interval 0.0 to 169.3

  5. 05
    error review

    Waterloo Station 3, Waterloo · 9.3 hires · Flagged for station-day review

  6. 06
    planner action

    Waterloo Station 3, Waterloo · Human review required · Check live availability, nearby docks and operating constraints before intervention

Powered by TfL Open Data under the Transport Data Service Licence. Quanta Meridian processed ten official 2026 journey extracts into a fixed historical research subset; no client or live operating data is used.

Related Solution routes

SolutionAnalytics Engineering

Build reproducible data layers, transformations and analytical handover.

SolutionData Quality

Retain validation, exceptions and release boundaries with the result.

Start with the decision

Bring the question and the evidence that is still missing.

No client delivery is implied by these studies; both use licensed public data and retained analytical outputs.

Discuss an analytical investigation